Recent positive economic data may not be a good guide to the future

Sir Mervyn King presented the Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report today. It halved its 2013 forecast for the UK’s economic growth to 1% from its previously predicted 2% target.

The report also said the UK could be stuck in a low-growth environment following economic problems in the eurozone continuing to have an impact domestically. Other factors, such as the unseasonably bad weather during the summer also led to a fluctuating picture from quarter to quarter.

Similarly, growth from July to September was boosted by one-off factors including ticket revenue from the Olympics and Paralympics and gave a perhaps overly optimistic impression of the underlying trend.

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